Improving the 2012 Indians: The Offense

Improving the Offense

The Indians offense ranked ninth in the AL last year in both runs scored with 704, which works out to 4.35 runs per game. But they were also shut out 13 times (third-most in the league), were held to  one run 19 times (fourth most; they went just 3-16 in those games) and were held to two runs 18 times (tied for seventh-most). All told, the Indians were held to two runs or fewer a total of 50 times (tied for seventh in AL) and went 7-43 in those games.

Cleveland was below league-average in all of the traditional offense metrics: ninth in batting average (.250), tied for ninth in on-base percentage (.317), 10th in slugging percentage (.396), and tied for 1oth in OPS (.714). The Indians struggled in the more sabermetric stats too, ranking 10th in wOBA  (.313) and  10th in wRC+ (99).

They lacked plate discipline, as evidenced by their 0.39 BB/K ratio (second-lowest in the league), 20.7 percent strikeout rate (second-highest) and 8.0 percent walk rate (eighth of 14 teams). They struck out 1,269 times, which was the second-most of any team in the AL. Strikeouts in a lineup need to come with an exchange of power (extra base hits), yet the Indians finished ninth in the league with 154 home runs. A good measure of a team’s power is ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average, or extra bases per at bat); the Tribe struggled in this department as well, finishing with a .146 ISO (ninth in the AL).

Bill James tracks what are known as manufactured runs, which are best described runs in which one-half of the run is created by the offense doing something other than station to station baseball (sacrifice bunt, stealing bases, infield hits, moving two bases on a single, advancing on outs or throws, etc.)—you could call it a measure of small ball. The Indians finished dead last in the AL with only 136 manufactured runs (for some perspective, the Texas Rangers led the league with 203). Playing small ball is one way to advance runners into scoring position, an area in which the Indians could have used some help; they finished 11th in the AL both in stolen bases (89) and in plate appearances with runners in scoring position (1545).

For Cleveland’s offense to improve in 2012, first and foremost the players need to stay healthy and be productive. Last year the Indians utilized the disabled list the second-most of any team in Major League Baseball. Amazingly, Asdrubal Cabrera (151 starts at shortstop) was the only Indians player to make over 100 starts at one position. Overall, Cleveland had only five players appear in over 100 games, which was the third-fewest in the AL. Only Seattle and Minnesota had fewer (three players each).

The Indians did very little in the way of improving the offense this offseason. After falling short in their pursuits of Josh Willingham, Carlos Pena, and Carlos Beltran they turned to signing free agent Casey Kotchman, whose big contribution is expected to be on defense. The key to the 2012 Indians offense may be how well Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner, Michael Brantley, Shin-Soo Choo, and Jason Kipnis return from the injuries that hampered them in 2011.