Series Preview: Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers

Apr 6, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) pitches in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Pitching Matchups:

Zach McAllister (1-0, 2.31 ERA/3.92 SIERA) vs. Anibal Sanchez (0-0, 3.00/3.94)

Did y’all see Zach McAllister against the Padres? Dude was brilliant! Granted, it’s not the most brilliant offensive team, but he shut them down for 7.2 innings. When he’s locating the fastball like that, using the whole plate AND dropping his dirty curve, Zach is nigh unhittable. Whether Other Zach will show up is the question this next time around – he’s very good at suddenly laying an egg. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been brilliant against the Tigers hitters he’ll be seeing. Austin Jackson is 5-for-10, Miggy is hitting .308 in 13 PA’s (though no homers – wow) and the great Don Kelly has a .400 average as well. It works out to a 4.85 ERA in four starts against the Tigers in his career. We’re watching the growth of a player though, and while he’ll likely give up three or four in say, 6.2 innings, I’d call that a small victory. After all, you can’t win every game 2-0.

Unfortunately, the 2013 ERA title holder starts opposite Zach. Anibal Sanchez has been brilliant since coming over from Florida – 143 ERA+, 9.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 a full walk lower than his Florida numbers. Last year was filthy in particular, and he just silenced the Indians – three starts, 19.1 innings, six earned runs and 20 strikeouts. And you know, it sounds better than it was, there was a reason Cleveland only beat Detroit four times last year. He throws all the fastballs (four, two and cut) in the mid-90’s and gets most of his strikeouts on a wicked slider batters swung at 40.5% of the time when it was outside the zone, and got a swinging strike 22% of the time on his change last year. He was always pretty good if underachieving in Florida, it looks like he figured it out. Someone find out what the Tigers’ pitching coach knows

Danny Salazar (6.75/3.24) vs. Drew Smyly (1-0, 0.00/2.16)

So Zach McAllister was pretty good his last outing, but Danny Salazar was goddamn amazing, if incredibly bizarre. As many, including our intrepid editor Brian Heise chronicled, it was like something nobody had ever seen, a practically perfect advanced stats outing. Everything was strikeouts or homers. The kid should learn some efficiency, but whatever, this was boss. Last time he saw the Tigers he about shut them down, struck out Miguel Cabrera three times then gave up one of the most tremendous home runs in history to the same man. I swear everyone in the stadium saw it coming. He needs to get his slider lower.

Sep 13, 2013; Chicago, IL, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Danny Salazar throws a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at U.S Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

According to Baseball Reference, Drew Smyly is a reliever, and the Tigers have four starters. But they’ve been grooming him to start for a while, and why not, he’s got the stuff. Last year, coming out of the pen he was a bright spot in a land of darkness – 9.6 K/9, 2.37 ERA, and somehow worth 1.9 fWAR in only 79 innings. That’s pretty impressive. How that will translate to six and seven innings 25 times this year is the question. He throws mostly the trio of fastballs in the low 90’s though his cutter averages in the high 80’s (according to the Detroit Free Press it’s his go-to pitch) and also features a slider. Last year he got 16% swinging strikes on the cutter, 13% on the slider. There’s a change up in there somewhere, it’s the key to his being a starter. Naturally that makes his slider the out pitch unless his change has made that leap (because it’s a living thing) which according to puffy writings from spring training, it may have. It’s still not something to sit on, this is the one in the series I expect to be the bullpen game. So naturally, the next one will.

Justin Masterson (0-0, 5.87/4.20) vs. Justin Verlander (1-1, 2.57/4.75)

Yup, another Justin-off. Justin Masterson has to find that A-game we saw once so far this season, because his last two outings have been something just short of dreadful. After that gem Opening Day he’s gone 8.1 innings, 10 earned runs, eight walks and 11 strikeouts. Only one homer, but for some reason that makes me feel worse. Times like this, you have that reality check that while he’s the best pitcher, he’s not exactly an ace. Still love the guy. The Tigers have been unkind to him – Alex Avila has a .280 average in 25 AB’s, Miggy is at .314 in 35 and V-Mart up at .412. And Don Kelly at .458, of course. All told, it works out to a 7.28 ERA in 18.1 innings a year ago, a season considered so good otherwise. It’s a little obvious, but he’s gotta not walk people – nine Tigers a year ago. Free passes for a team that crushes it this bad can’t happen. Positivity tells me he’ll bounce back, find what was wrong the last two starts and do the opposite. Unless the Tigers think that too, and expect it. Crap.

And then there’s Justin Verlander. The guy whose down year (2013 with a 119 ERA+ in 218 innings) is better than Masterson’s best. It’s a little disconcerting if you think about it too much. In the early goings this season has been vintage Verlander, seven innings an outing with a 2.57 ERA. The strikeout totals are down, only 13, but it’s wicked early. The only thing I can think is he hasn’t found the feel of his change up, only getting a swinging strike 8.3% of the time thus far compared to 14.1 for his career. Plus, maybe guys are being particularly aggressive, expecting strikes because he throws so many and making weak contact because his repertoire is a septic tank. If you really want the numbers, here – in 2013 Verlander threw 32 innings in five starts against Cleveland amassing a 3.38 ERA with 35 K’s. Sounds alright, though five of the 12 earned runs he had against the Tribe came in one outing. On the other hand, that was in May, and this is even earlier. He’s good, so Masterson has to be better.