Series Preview: Cleveland Indians (68-64) @ Kansas City Royals (74-59)

Danny Salazar (4-6, 4.52 ERA, 3.49 SIERA) vs. Jason Vargas (10-6, 3.17 ERA, 4.27 SIERA)

Aug 17, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Danny Salazar (31) delivers in the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve become upset that Dustin Pedroia has stolen the nickname “Laser Show” because while Danny doesn’t have the most amazing repertoire of pitches, that fastball of his, straight as an arrow, is fast as light. Or thereabouts. It’s probably a good thing it actually isn’t since they’d go through catchers pretty fast. Unless their glove was a mirror maybe …  At any rate, despite being yo-yo’d back and forth from AAA and back, Salazar has been solid for the Tribe. The strikeouts have always been there, but the walks are down with only nine his last six starts spanning 33 innings, compared to 17 in the 40.2 he worked before being sent down for a few weeks. He’s also got a 3.27 ERA in those starts, including a seven inning three run game against the Royals back in July. If he’s found his confidence, look out.

Vargas is having his finest year, results-wise, even if the peripheral and fielding independent metrics aren’t as nice to him. It’s crazy – his walk rate is down nearly 2% to 5.2, but his BABIP is about his career average at .289. His home run per fly ball rate at 7.7% is strong, better than that 8.9% that’s been his career thus far, and this after moving away from that pitcher’s haven of Safeco Field. Maybe it’s just one of those things, or it could be he’s throwing more change-ups and all but phased out the cutter, according to Fangraphs at least. Sometimes simplifying your approach can pay off. There is a two run difference in his home to away ERA’s though, 4.16 at home to 2.12 on the road. There’s a lot to unpack there, but like I said, it could just be one of those seasons, a little tweak here or there and he’s money. Plus that Royals defense behind him probably gets him out of some iffy times. He’s been pretty much the same against the Indians this year as his season has been going – 3.29 ERA in 13.2 innings, and impressively only two walks over that stretch.

Trevor Bauer (5-7, 4.18 ERA, 3.89 SIERA) vs. James Shields (12-7, 3.45 ERA, 3.67 SIERA)

Bauer has laid some eggs on the road this year, amassing a 5.81 ERA in 48 innings. He’s thrown 70.1 at home and given up six home runs each way. Home cooking is powerful stuff for pitchers. He dropped a stinker against the Twins two starts back but has been at least solid for the last nine or so starts, giving the team quality starts. It’s a bunk term since I still don’t think a 4.50 ERA is quality especially in this era of depressed offenses, but for what amounts to a rookie pitcher with his rebuilt everything and all, it’s a good start. Plus the strikeouts are showing up. He tantalizes, and at times he can mow them down. He’s not faced the Royals this year.

For as good as he is, Shields gives up a lot of hits. He leads the league with 193 and in 2010 years ago led baseball with 246. He has a solid K rate though and this year a career low in walk rate at 5%. He gets it done though, he’s a fine pitcher and whether he knows it or not carries the honor of the Dayton Moore name on his shoulders. Seems like every time I see him pitch he throws like seven shutout innings, he must give up runs in secret. To steal a football/farming term, he’s the bellcow of this pitching staff, they go as he goes. Right now it’s good. He was strong against the Tribe back in April giving up only one run in six innings off the bat of Yan Gomes. Are there tougher pitchers? No doubt. There’s one on the Indians that’s better this year. But Shields is great, just ask Tom Hamilton. He’ll tell you even if you don’t ask.

Aug 25, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher James Shields (33) delivers a pitch against the New York Yankees during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

TJ House (2-3, 4.18 ERA, 3.39 SIERA) vs. Danny Duffy (8-11, 2.47 ERA, 4.29 SIERA)

The start in Chicago reminded me what TJ House is – a middling lefty. He will have a career for a while because of that dominant hand, but he’s got to figure out either better location or another pitch or something if he wants to take a step. I have hope for him, he grew a furious beard so I’m pretty high on him. If he duplicates what he did against the Royals last time he saw them, 6.2 innings with three earned runs, that’s more than enough. Less would be better because of who he’s starting opposite, but like i said, middling lefty. you can’t expect the world.

Looking at Duffy’s numbers, I’m blown away. He’s got those Kluber numbers, those ace numbers. With how hard he throws though. mid-90’s fastball with a five pitch repertoire, you’d think he’d strike out more than 6.2 per nine. But he doesn’t, just weak contact, I guess. If he had the qualified innings his 46.5% fly ball rate would be the fourth best among AL starters behind former teammate Jake Odorizzi. That and his 5.6% home run/fly ball rate, much lower than league average, tell the story. Like I said, weak contact. It helps. In 15 innings, two starts and three appearances total, he’s logged a 2.40 ERA against the Tribe with 15 strikeouts. Maybe the Indians need to work on their contact. They’ve homered off him twice though. Duffy gets almost no run support, just one of those weird snake-bitten years pitchers will have sometimes, but it’s not something you can bank on. The Indians gotta hit him.