Bourn, Swisher Salaries Looming Over Offseason

Sep 4, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians center fielder Michael Bourn (24) scores a run in the seventh inning against the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

All things considered, the Indians should enter the upcoming offseason in very good shape as far as payroll is concerned.  Mark Rzepczynski is the highest paid guy on the entire pitching staff at $1.375 million, and the players who make up the foundation of the offense – Kipnis, Santana, Gomes, and Brantley – are all under contract for multiple years at affordable salaries.  Two other potential key guys, Lonnie Chisenhall and either Jose Ramirez or Francisco Lindor, will not be arbitration-eligible for a while, so their pay will be at the discretion of ownership. There are a couple of guys who might be in line for significant raises – Corey Kluber, for one – but nobody stands out as a candidate to break the bank in arbitration and the two pending free agents have already been disposed of, so the Indians enter this offseason in position to maintain what they have and possibly add something of value.

There is, however, the issue of the enormous salaries due Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn.  Between them they will make $28.5 million next year, which will probably amount to about a third of the Indians’ total payroll.  Considering the tight payroll budget, the fact that neither is in the top six on the team in WAR, and the fact that both of these guys are at an age where they are more likely to continue regressing than to regain their prior form, one has to wonder whether the Indians would be better served by dumping their contracts and spending the money elsewhere.

The situations have to be considered separately.  First, Bourn, who is 31 and has actually not had a terrible season when he has been able to play, with a better OPS than in 2013.  Bourn ranks near the bottom in the American League in range, but that may be due as much to his hamstring and the ground ball staff as to actual decline; he is still an adequate centerfielder, which gives him some value entering next season.  However, Bourn no longer has the on-base percentage or base-stealing ability of a classic leadoff man, which is what made him supposedly worth 48 million dollars.

If Bourn was out of the picture, one could envision the Indians moving Brantley to center, Kipnis to left, and installing a double play combo of Ramirez and Lindor.  This would certainly be a stronger defensive team, due to the improvement in the infield, and would probably be at least as good offensively.  However, it is difficult to imagine another team assuming Bourn’s contract.  His best case scenario is probably not much better than what he has done this season, with a few more steals and slightly better range in center if he stays healthy.  He does not provide enough offense to play a corner outfield spot, and if he is not hitting leadoff he should probably be in the bottom third of the order.  All in all, there are enough players who can approximate Bourn’s contribution that nobody will pay a premium for it. That would leave the Indians with the option of absorbing most of Bourn’s salary in order to facilitate a trade, which defeats the purpose of freeing up funds to improve the team in other places.  So, barring something bizarre, Bourn will probably be on the roster for the next two seasons (three, if he meets the vesting goal of 550 plate appearances in 2016.)  If he is on the roster, he will be playing as much as his legs allow, and likely leading off as well, damaging the offense from the very first inning.

Swisher has been worse than Bourn, at least this year, while making even more money, with numbers that are worse than replacement level.  However, I believe the Indians would be more likely to find a market for Swisher.  Although he is older than Bourn, his skill set – power hitting, as opposed to speed –is one that would tend to age better.  Swisher’s injuries also give him a built-in excuse for his poor play, as one can make the case that if his knees are healthy he is likely to rebound.  Also, Swisher is a year removed from an OPS of .764, following several years over .800.  If Swisher can match those numbers, he is worth almost as much as he is making.  Consider that Carlos Beltran, four years older with similar 2013 numbers, got a three year deal for more money than Swisher this past offseason.

While I doubt that the Indians can get anything of value for Swisher, at least until he plays enough to show he can be productive, there are enough teams starved for power hitting that it is not difficult to imagine someone taking a flyer.  What the Indians need to decide is whether they are willing to let him go for nothing, simply to have the opportunity to put the money to better use.