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Cleveland Indians: Francisco Lindor Should Be Unanimous American League Rookie of the Year Winner

By Matt Bretz

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Lindor Should Be the Unanimous AL Rookie of the Year

On Monday night, Major League Baseball is set to unveil the American League Rookie of the Year winner.  Cleveland Indians’ shortstop Francisco Lindor is one of the three finalists for the award, along with Astros’ shortstop Carlos Correa and Twins’ infielder/designated hitter Miguel Sano.  Many figure it will be a close vote between Correa and Lindor, with Sano finishing in third place.  However, if one ignores how each team finished and focused solely on how each performed this year, Francisco Lindor should not only win the award, but he should be the unanimous choice for the American League Rookie of the Year award.

The Case for Lindor

So why should Francisco Lindor win the award unanimously? Putting it bluntly, Lindor was flat out the best all-around rookie in the American League this year.  He finished the season ranked first among American League rookies in both WAR (wins above replacement) according to both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference, the two main sources for the statistic.  He lead all American League rookies hitting .313 while finishing top five in OBP (on-base percentage), OPS (on-base plus slugging), wOBA (weighted on-base average), wRC+ (weighted runs created plus).  He also flashed some of the best leather in the entire league at shortstop (rookie or not).

Calling Lindor the surefire best all-around rookie in the American is no knock on Carlos Correa or Miguel Sano. Both had phenomenal rookie campaigns and both have bright futures ahead of them. In many years, what each did would have been good enough to win, but unfortunately for them, Lindor was just better.  Here’s a quick look at how the three faired in key offensive stats and overall value:

[table id=29 /]fWAR=WAR per Fangraphs; rWAR=WAR per Baseball-Reference

Looking at this chart a few things pop out.  Lindor was by far the best overall talent (WAR), Sano was by far the best hitter (OBP, OPS, wOBA, wRC+), and Correa put up the best counting stats (HR, SB).  What is not shown is the one aspect of the game where Lindor truly shined: Defense.

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Lindor was by far the best defender of the group.  He had a +10 DRS (defensive runs saved) at shortstop in only 99 games, which was not only tops among rookies but led all American League shortstops. There was a very good chance he’d have been a finalists or even won the Gold Glove at shortstop had he been eligible.  Correa, also a shortstop, was no slouch defensively as he posted a 0 DRS, meaning he neither cost nor saved his team runs on defense (he was literally average).  Sano meanwhile has had his issues in the field and was forced to be the Twins’ designated hitter much of the time, hurting his overall value.

Even for those who are still gun shy about using defensive metrics, it didn’t take a baseball expert to watch the games and see just how special Lindor truly was on defense. Although Correa played well at shortstop, especially for a rookie, Lindor made plays that very few in the game could make.  Quite simply, Lindor’s defense combined with his plus offense makes the case for Lindor as Rookie of the Year a very simple one.

A Case Against Lindor?

Honestly, there isn’t much of a case against Lindor winning the Rookie of the Year award.  One knock is that defensive metrics aren’t reliable, so there is the argument that if you remove that, Correa should win it, as he did with the Sporting News Rookie of the Year award.  Again, not to take away anything Correa accomplished, but how does one really justify giving him the award, even if defensive metrics are discounted?

If offense is the only criteria, Sano, not Correa, should win the AL Rookie of the Year. Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

If one were to discount what Lindor accomplished on defense, wouldn’t Miguel Sano have to be the American League Rookie of the Year selection then?  I mean, Sano was clearly the better offensively player this year.  As shown in the chart above, Sano beat Correa in OBP, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+.  Correa did lead all American League rookies with 22 home runs; however, Sano was right behind at 18 despite nearly 100 fewer plate appearances.  So if the award is going to go to the best offensive rookie, Sano should be the hands down favorite to win.

This then brings us back to who was actually the best overall rookie, and again, that seems to be pretty clear: it was Francisco Lindor.  So while there may appear to be some case against Lindor (Correa was ever so slightly better offensively), when weighed appropriately, the case really doesn’t have much to stand on.

Will Lindor Win Unanimously?

Francisco Lindor will absolutely not win the American League Rookie of the Year award unanimously, no matter how much he deserves too. In fact, there’s a very realistic chance that he doesn’t win the award at all. As mentioned, Carlos Correa has already won one Rookie of the Year award and he’s gotten a lot of attention all summer.  In fact, heading into August it seemed like Correa was on his way to possibly winning the award unanimously.  However, Lindor’s amazing second half catapulted him not only into the Rookie of the Year discussion, but gave him a chance to be the potential favorite.  His rise is not too dissimilar from the ascension of teammate Corey Kluber a year ago when he eventually passed up presumed Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez with the award after an unbelievable year.

One thing that likely will sway voters to Correa (though it shouldn’t) is the fact that the Astros made the playoffs, whereas the Indians and Twins did not.  The Rookie of the Year award, however, is supposed to go to the best rookie, not the best rookie on a playoff team. Nevertheless, Correa is likely to get some votes simply based on how his team did, which is unfortunate.

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The fact that Lindor was clearly the best American League rookie in overall value should (hopefully) give him the support he needs among voters to win the first Major League Baseball Rookie of the Year award for the Cleveland Indians since Sandy Alomar won it back in 1990.  Alomar, coincidently, is the current first base coach for Lindor and the Cleveland Indians.  Hopefully voters are able to get this vote right and select Lindor, unlike in 1992 when Pat Listach was selected over Kenny Lofton who, like Lindor, deserved to not only win the award that year, but win it unanimously.

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