Cleveland Indians: Starting pitching depth could be key to better April

A stronger rotation for the Cleveland Indians could mean an improved April–which could lead to more than just chasing Wild Card dreams at the end of the season.

There have been a couple of stories out lately predicting that the Cleveland Indians will win the American League Central.  It’s possible that those people need to get back on their meds, but I was one of those people last year, and the core of the team is essentially the same.  Mike Napoli has replaced Brandon Moss as the veteran who strikes out a lot, and Rajai Davis should be at least as good as Michael Bourn.

Whereas last year we were hopeful about the rotation, this year we expect it to be very good.  The lineup will look a lot more solid if Michael Brantley comes back strong from shoulder surgery; a lineup built around the 2014 versions of Brantley, Gomes, and Santana and 2015 Kipnis and Lindor would probably be above average, provided the complementary players do their part.  An average offense and an elite rotation should be enough to contend; anything above average from the offense would be icing on the cake.

Whereas last year we were hopeful about the rotation, this year we expect it to be very good.  The lineup will look a lot more solid if Michael Brantley comes back strong from shoulder surgery; a lineup built around the 2014 versions of Brantley, Gomes, and Santana and 2015 Kipnis and Lindor would probably be above average, provided the complementary players do their part.  An average offense and an elite rotation should be enough to contend; anything above average from the offense would be icing on the cake.

There is one hole on this team that must be overcome in order to reach its full potential.  It’s not the offense, the defense, not even the lack of anyone calling total strangers “bro.”  The Achilles’ heel of this team is April.  On the morning of May 1, 2015, the Indians found themselves 4.5 games out the wild card in the American League standings.  That’s precisely where they finished the season.  In 2014, they were four games out of the wild card on April 30 and finished the year three games out.  Even in 2013, when they won one of the wild card spots, they were three games out of that spot on April 30.

The big difference in those three seasons is that last year the Indians dug themselves such a hole in April that they did not even reach .500 until September 13.  You really can’t talk about being a contender when you’re still working on breaking even, and by the time the Indians got to that point last year there were only three weeks left in the season.  By contrast, in 2013, they reached .500 on May 3 and only fell below for a week in June.

So it seems reasonable to believe that if the Indians reach the end of April with a winning record, we should be downright giddy about the rest of the season.  Of course, if it was that easy every team would do it.  So what can the Indians do differently this year?

Well, one thing that seems to go wrong at the start of every year is the back-end of the rotation.  In 2013, we had the Brett Myers fiasco.  In 2014, we all thought Danny Salazar was going to win the Cy Young, but he was in Columbus by the middle of May.  Last year we were banking on T.J. House, but he was 0-4 before anyone figured out he was hurt.

In case it hasn’t sunk in yet, those games mattered.  Win those four starts where House was throwing batting practice, and the whole season looks different come September.  Even in 2013, the games that got pissed away in April may have cost the Indians a division title, which would have meant a longer postseason run than just one game.

That should not be the case this year.  For one thing, the fifth starter will not even be needed until April 23, and when the Indians do go to five starters they will not be relying on a retread coming off arm surgery or an untested rookie but will have three candidates, all of whom have track records suggesting a reasonable possibility of success:  House, Cody Anderson, and Josh Tomlin, who should be the favorite given his longer track record.  This depth, however, means that nobody will be conceded the fifth spot, so if Tomlin is not sharp in spring training either Anderson or House should be able to step up.  The depth also provides insurance against an injury or prolonged slump by one of the top four starters.

Next: Aiken on the path back after Tommy John

To be clear, the Indians are far from the only team that has struggled to find an effective fifth starter.  But recent history suggests that these guys will not win a lot of 10-8 slugfests, especially in April without Brantley.  Which means that they can’t recover from a starter who can’t get to the sixth inning without letting things get out of hand.  Having a full complement of starters who are capable of consistently avoiding that could be the key to ending April with a winning record.