Cleveland Indians: Signing Austin Jackson makes little sense

The added value of Austin Jackson is likely not worth the cost for the Cleveland Indians

Jon Heyman has recently reported that the Cleveland Indians are “considering” Austin Jackson. While this may make many Indians fans jump with joy, he also notes that the Chicago White Sox, the Los Angeles Angels, the Milwaukee Brewers and possible the Texas Rangers are in on Jackson.

One of the common reasons for supporting the addition of Jackson is that he would vastly improve the outfield. Michael Brantley will miss some amount of time, and his performance of play upon returning is very much in question. Surely Austin Jackson is an improvement over the Rajai Davis–Abraham Almonte treatment?

Another common argument for the transaction is that his current price should be way down from where it stood at the start of the off-season. Certainly this makes some sense, as he lacks a suitable home and no one seems willing to give him Tim Dierkes’ projected $12 million contract. Steamer projects him to be worth $8.9 million next year in 111 games, but he is likely to play more and thus be worth more.

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Any fan that gives one of those two reasons for signing Austin Jackson has a point, and the front office most certainly can justify his signing in a press release. This is a transaction that makes sense at first glance, which is all that many fans need to feel positive about any major decision in baseball.

But there is a fundamental flaw in this logic: Austin Jackson’s extra value will probably not be worth the cost when considering whom his is replacing. Believe it or not,  Almonte is not actually that bad. He may not be great, but he will at least be serviceable.

Let’s look at some numbers from Steamer’s projections. Below is a table with the algorithm’s outputs that have been adjusted to more accurately reflect playing time. Listed are the four starting outfielders – Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Davis, and  Almonte ­– along with the depth chart’s fourth outfielder, Collin Cowgill, and a few of their statistics.

For reference, wRC+ measures a player’s offensive output against the league average. A wRC+ of 120 means that a player creates runs with his bat at a rate 120% of a league-average player. Bat, BsR, and Fld stand for batting, baserunning, and fielding runs above average, respectively. WAR means wins above a replacement player, and dollars are the dollar value, in millions, of a player’s WAR.

[table id=34 /]

How does this projected outfield stack up? This is just a matter of simple arithmetic, and the sum yields 4.9 wins above a replacement player – unexciting, but not horrible.For playing time, I assumed that Brantley will play 100 games; Chisenhall and Almonte, 130; Davis, 70; and Cowgill, 35. These are not unreasonable expectations, as Almonte will probably be the team’s main center fielder, but both he and Chisenhall will be unlikely to play the full season due to the fact that neither of the two has played on a consistent basis in the past.

Now, what if the Indians signed Austin Jackson? Adding him would replace roughly 60 games of Abraham Almonte, 40 games of Rajai Davis, and all of Collin Cowgill. This new and improved outfield receives a WAR of 5.6, roughly three-quarters of a win better than before. If we turn that added WAR into dollar terms, we find that Austin Jackson adds roughly $5.7 million of value to the Indians next year.

Austin Jackson’s cost will almost certainly outweigh his value.

While a one-year, $6 million contract could work for both the Indians and Jackson, it seems unlikely that this will happen. The Chicago White Sox, also in on the outfielder, have a replacement-level player patrolling the outfield every day. This means that Jackson is worth a little over $10 million to them. As we all know, 10 is greater than six, and this difference only becomes bigger when we look at it in terms of millions of dollars.

For this simple reason, an Austin Jackson signing makes little sense for the Cleveland Indians. It is probable that he will find a bigger offer somewhere else, and the Indians cannot be expected to overpay for an average outfielder. As tantalizing as it may be, the Cleveland Indians must have the resolve to not pay more than $6 million.

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This said, the Cleveland Indians should absolutely make an offer if his price tag falls below that level. Both the fans and the front office want to see the team win, and improving any position leads the team to more victories. The problem is that with a team that is as cash-strapped as the Tribe, they cannot afford to offer pay for value that they will not receive. As such, signing Austin Jackson sounds great at first, but it makes little sense upon closer inspection.