Cleveland Indians: Cody Allen Is Experiencing Yet Another Velocity Drop

2016 makes the third straight season that the Cleveland Indians’ closer has seen his velocity decrease – should we be concerned?

Back in late March, Nicholas D. Blazek noted that Cody Allen had been struggling mightily through Spring Training. He commented that Allen typically fails the “eye test”, but the results have always been there. Last season was the third straight year for the closer to post a sub-three earned run average. 

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Now that we are a month into the regular season, it may be time for another examination of Cody Allen’s status. He has a pristine eight-for-eight save record through his first 13 games, but he has also allowed eight earned runs. Fortunately, much of this run prevention has come in a few doses and it has yet to result in a blown save. This said, the right-hander has already allowed the game-winning run in three games.

Let’s take a look at some of Cody Allen’s underlying factors to see if we can diagnose the problem. When looking at pitch values, PITCHf/x has recorded drops in value for both his fastball and curveball. In fact, the system rates Allen’s fastball as below average and his curveball as just better than average.

Clearly something is wrong here, and the title of this post should be a bit of a giveaway. Now, let’s take a look at the closer’s velocity. Below is a graph of his average release speed from Brooks Baseball.

That is quite a clear trend. This is now the third straight season in which Allen has opened the year with a lower velocity than the year before. Certainly, the chart should cause some amount of nervousness that Allen might not rebound, but it is important to note that the chart is increasing. If Allen’s velocity continues to increase back to his average level, his pitches should become more effective and his outcomes should become more positive.

While it may be too soon to become concerned, the Cleveland Indians need Cody Allen to get better, especially since the rest of the bullpen has struggled so far. Ranking 24^th in fWAR, the bullpen has mostly underwhelmed. In fact, Dan Otero has arguably been the best member of the ‘pen so far, and he has pitched just nine innings.

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So, for the next few weeks it may be worth monitoring his velocity as well as his results. Hopefully, both return to their prior rates soon, because the Cleveland Indians need Cody Allen badly.