Cleveland Indians: Does a Melvin Upton Trade Make Sense?

Trade Rumors Say the Cleveland Indians Have Shown Interest in Melvin Upton Jr. But Does He Make Sense?

With just about a week to go before the non-waiver trading deadline, trade rumors are starting to heat up and with the Cleveland Indians in first-place they are in the middle of several. One particular rumor is that they’ve expressed some interest in trading for outfielder Melvin Upton Jr. of the San Diego Padres.

The Indians aren’t the only team interested in Upton as the Baltimore Orioles and even the Toronto Blue Jays have been mentioned as having interest as well. Upton is having a good season so interest from other clubs is no surprise. The Padres are also struggling and have already started dealing having dealt James Shields to the Chicago White Sox and All-Star Drew Pomeranz to the Boston Red Sox. The question seems less likely about should Upton be dealt but who will get him and also, is he worth trading for? For me, the answer to that last part is more towards the “no” end of the spectrum… 

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As said, the elder Upton is having a good season with the Padres. He’s only hitting .256 with a .743 OPS but has 16 home runs and 20 stolen bases on the season. He’s also posted a solid 1.5 fWAR on the season while playing mostly left field, where he’s been quite solid defensively. However, despite all the good he’s done, there’s still a big sore spot that needs mentioning whenever Upton is discussed in trades: his contract.

Upton is still on his five-year/$75.25 million deal he signed as a free agent with the Atlanta Braves before the 2013 season. He’s making $15.45 million this season, meaning he’s still owed about $5-6 million the rest of the year. He’s also making a hefty $16.45 million in 2017, the last year of his deal, meaning he’s owed about $21-22 million the over the next year and a half. That’s a ton for a guy who’s been about league average with the bat (101 wRC+). One would expect the Padres to be willing to eat some of the money owed to him to facilitate a trade but how much remains anyone’s guess.

Comparing Upton with the Tribe’s Rajai Davis, who is making only about $5 million before incentives this season, and one can’t help but think the Padres may need to eat over $10 million just in 2017 alone. Heading into today’s action Davis had the exact same .743 OPS as Upton while hitting nine home runs and stealing 24 bases. Davis has an even better 2.1 fWAR on the season while playing all over the outfield. He too is league average offensively with a 100 wRC+. Given the play the Indians have gotten from Tyler Naquin, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Jose Ramirez, is there even a spot for Upton in the outfield, especially when he’s not an offensive upgrade over any of them?

The one area where Upton would help is against left-handed pitching. The right-handed hitting Upton is batting .282 with a .913 OPS against lefties this season, something the Indians could use as they’ve struggled offensively against southpaws this season. The Indians have been using Abraham Almonte and Erik Gonzalez in right field recently against left-handed starting pitching so Upton would represent a huge upgrade over either of them and could play alongside Davis and Ramirez.

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However, this brings us back to Upton’s salary. Is a guy that will only play against lefties really worth the money he’s owed on top of whatever it would cost in players to acquire him? The Indians declined Ryan Raburn‘s $3 million option this fall as they felt his bat, which was better than Upton’s against lefties, was not worth the money. Upton is younger than Raburn (though Upton will be 32 in a month) and brings speed, but unless the Padres eat about 75-80% of the money owed to him he just does not make much sense for the Indians.

Bottom line, the Cleveland Indians should look elsewhere for an offensive upgrade versus left-handed pitching. The man formerly known as “BJ Upton” simply is not a fit in Cleveland.