Cleveland Indians: Analyzing Carlos Carrasco’s Strange August

Carlos Carrasco threw a gem on Monday night in Oakland. Is the Cleveland Indians’ right-hander rebounding from his strange August?

The season that Carlos Carrasco has been having in 2016 for the Cleveland Indians is one that can be defined by two months: the month of May that he spent on the disabled list recovering from a hamstring injury, and the month of August where has struggled to the tune of an earned run average over five.

Take away those two months, and Carrasco has picked up right where he left in 2015, looking every bit the dominant, ace-level pitcher that gives opposing hitters nightmares. Despite an August that has seen him yield 18 earned runs in 32.1 innings, the man they call Cookie has a 3.12 ERA, a 3.53 FIP, and an ERA+ of 151 on the season, and the Indians have won 13 of his 20 starts.

Carrasco ranks in the top ten in the American League in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, strikeouts per nine innings, strikeout-to-walk ratio, and adjusted pitching wins according to BaseballlReference.com.

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August has been a bizarre month for the 29-year old, and a deeper look at the numbers is revealing. Eight of Carrasco’s earned runs in the month came in a single start, on August 2nd against Minnesota, an outing in which he lasted just 3.2 innings, gave up nine hits including two home runs, walked two, and struck out only one. Remove that start, and his ERA for the month drops to 3.14, in line with his season numbers.

Just as Cookie’s season has been defined by two months, his August can be explained pretty well by looking at two starts.

Monday night’s start for Carrasco against Oakland was a masterpiece, as he tossed eight innings of four-hit shutout ball, striking out nine and not giving up a walk. Diving into the PITCHf/x data it’s easy to see why, as his slider was simply devastating. Carrasco got excellent movement and break on it, resulting in ten swings and misses and just three balls put in play.

Now compare that to the rough outing against the Twins. Carrasco’s feel for the slider in that game was simply not there, as he threw it only five times and it lacked the tightness and sharp break he had on display against the A’s. The effectiveness of this single pitch is vital to his success on the mound.

Monday’s start was the kind the Tribe needs from Carrasco if the team hopes to claim its first Central Division title since 2007. Given the struggles of Josh Tomlin and the uncertainty surrounding Danny Salazar, Cleveland must get quality starts from Cookie down the stretch. Outings like the one against Minnesota could be very costly at this late point in the season.

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The schedule is loaded to the gills with divisional opponents in September, and the magnitude of each game for the Indians will increase exponentially. The club needs Carrasco to be just as dominant in his remaining starts as he was against the A’s if there’s going to be meaningful baseball being played in Cleveland in October.