Cleveland Indians: How does the Tribe stack up in the AL so far?

The Cleveland Indians started the season strong, wobbled, and are back to strength. How do they compare with other elite AL teams?

The Cleveland Indians are going to face some stiff American League competition this year. Not that the competition was weak last year, but there is strength all across the AL so far this year.

10 of the American League’s 15 teams are either at or above .500 so far. Nine teams have a 0 or better run differential. Only one team in the AL Central and AL East are below .500. What does this mean for the Tribe?

The AL will be tougher.

The American League as a whole looks better so far this year. Some teams have over-performed, some have underperformed. The Blue Jays look toast, even though experts pegged them as contenders.

The Astros look like world-killers, as expected. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles are all playing very well, especially at home. The Tigers, White Sox, and Twins are all sticking around, playing .500 ball or better so far. There is a good chance that the Minnesota Twins and White Sox falter, and .500 teams like the A’s and Rays fade into oblivion.

What that means, is that there are at least six teams that will be competitive in the AL, with an unlucky team like Texas waiting for a break. There could be as many as seven contenders come September.

And there is no reason to panic.

The 2016 version of these Cleveland Indians looked eerily similar to the 2017 version thus far. Today, the Tribe has only a +7 run differential, and they are 2-5 at home. Last year, on April 26, the Tribe was 9-9, 4.5 games outside of first place, and 3-5 at home. They had an identical +7 run differential last year at this point.

It was not until the Indians’ huge win streak from June 17 (record: 36-30) to July 1 (record 49-30) that the Indians took off. Now, it is unlikely that the Indians run off another 14-game win streak this season, and this year’s team is arguably better all around than last year’s.

The biggest competition is the Astros.

With all due respect to the Orioles and Yankees, it will be the Astros and Indians battling it out for AL supremacy. So far, the Astros look dominant, with a 7-4 home record and 7-2 road record. They are 8-2 in their last ten, and they have tied their own franchise record for most wins in the first 20 games of the season at 14.

The Astros are doing all of this without being fully healthy, too. Outfielder Jake Marisnick is on the 7-day DL. George Springer is battling a hamstring issue. Carlos Beltran had to play the outfield at 40 years old. When the Astros are full-strength in the outfield, and if Dallas Keuchel continues to deal, they will be a tough out. The Indians already lost their first game against the Astros on Tuesday, 4-2.

But the Indians are still the better overall team.

Even though the Astros look solid, and the AL East seems dominant, the Cleveland Indians are still the best team in the AL. A healthy Michael Brantley, and Yan Gomes, the full-season version of Andrew Miller, Abraham Almonte, and Brandon Guyer, and adding Edwin Encarnacion make the Indians the team to beat in the AL.

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The Indians already have four everyday players and three rotation outfielders above a zero offensive WAR. Jose Ramirez is tops in the league in RBI. Frankie Lindor is a home run threat. Even a poor start by Yan Gomes is not that bad so far.

Put that killer lineup combined with a stellar rotation and a lights-out bullpen, the Indians will be a tough out in the playoffs. Andrew Miller and Cody Allen have been untouchable. Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer are both above a 10.0 K/9. Corey Kluber just threw a complete game shutout. Carlos Carrasco has a 1.65 ERA in four starts.

Even Josh Tomlin bounced back after a rough first two outings to put in two quality starts. Newcomer Boone Logan has done what the Tribe asked him to do, and Zach McAllister is trying to take that seventh-inning role away from Bryan Shaw with his early season performance. The Indians bullpen is fierce.

So, how does the Tribe stack up in the AL?

The Indians are 3.5 games back of the Astros in the American League standings. Similarly, the Tribe has the sixth-best run differential in the American League now at +7. The team is fifth in runs scored and eighth in runs allowed.

Other than Toronto, the Indians have the worst home record in the league after a league-leading 53 home wins in 2016. All of that is to say that the Indians are fine.

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They are in line to have another stellar season, and they will have stiff competition from Houston and some AL East team. Just like last year when the Red Sox were the team to beat in the AL and the Indians trounced them, we could see another situation where the Astros run away as the “best team” in the AL, while the Indians wait in the wings to see how they can beat them up.